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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 8 at the 25

Arizona Cardinals 15 – Dallas Cowboys 10

What Actually Happened

(1:31) 5-M.Prater 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-16-N.Cooney.

The Three Options

GO +0.87 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 17, worth +4.88 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 25, worth -0.83 EP
KICK +1.67 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 87% chance to make a 42-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.13 EP
  • 13% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 35, worth -1.33 EP
PUNT -0.14 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth -0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model