Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 15 at the 80

Dallas Cowboys 0 – Arizona Cardinals 3

What Actually Happened

(10:16) 5-B.Anger punts 52 yards to ARI 28, Center-44-T.Sieg. 83-G.Dortch to DAL 44 for 28 yards (33-D.Clark). PENALTY on ARI-35-C.Matthew, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at ARI 28.

The Three Options

GO -2.94 EP

31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.24 EP
69% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 80, worth -4.85 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model