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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 7 at the 8

Dallas Cowboys 10 – Arizona Cardinals 21

What Actually Happened

(9:30) 17-B.Aubrey 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger.

The Three Options

GO +2.18 EP
Model's Pick
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 1, worth +6.44 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 8, worth -0.04 EP
KICK +1.74 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 25-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.81 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 21, worth -0.86 EP
PUNT -0.17 EP
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.44 EP