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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 2 at the 21

Arizona Cardinals 0 – Dallas Cowboys 0

What Actually Happened

(12:35) 5-M.Prater 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-16-N.Cooney.

The Three Options

GO +2.42 EP
Model's Pick
  • 51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 19, worth +5.07 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 21, worth -0.38 EP
KICK +2.04 EP
What Happened
  • 91% chance to make a 38-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.35 EP
  • 9% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 31, worth -1.11 EP
PUNT +0.17 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth +0.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.39 EP