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MIA Away

Miami Dolphins

HC Mike McDaniel
@
NE Home

New England Patriots

HC Bill Belichick
Sunday 2023-09-17 · 20:20 Gillette Stadium, Foxborough US ☀️ Clear Spread -2.0 O/U 46.5

Win Probability

MIA
49.2%
NE
50.8%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • QB edge to MIA: Mac Jones (NE) -0.070 vs Tua Tagovailoa (MIA) +0.238 EPA/dropback
  • NE offense: -0.056 EPA/play over its last 8 games (21st in the league)
  • MIA offense: -0.040 EPA/play over its last 8 games (18th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

MIA 22
–
NE 23
Projected margin: NE by 1 Projected total: 45

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 2

MIA

Kelvin Joseph CB Out Not injury related - personal matter
Terron Armstead T Questionable back, ankle, knee
Elijah Campbell S Questionable Knee
Julian Hill TE Questionable Ankle
Jaelan Phillips LB Questionable Back

NE

Trenton Brown T Questionable Concussion
Jonathan Jones CB Questionable Ankle
Sidy Sow T Questionable Concussion
Michael Onwenu G Questionable Ankle
DeVante Parker WR Questionable Knee
Cole Strange G Questionable Knee

Pulled fresh for 2023 week 2 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

MIA 24
–
NE 17

Prediction missed by 8 pts on margin, 4 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 03:04 FG MIA (3:04) 7-J.Sanders 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-B.Ferguson, Holder-16-J.Bailey. MIA 3 – NE 0
  • Q2 09:43 TD MIA (9:43) (Shotgun) 31-R.Mostert left end for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIA 9 – NE 0
  • Q2 01:53 FG NE (1:53) 37-C.Ryland 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-17-B.Baringer. MIA 10 – NE 3
  • Q2 00:15 TD MIA (:15) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short right to 10-T.Hill for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIA 16 – NE 3
  • Q4 11:27 TD NE (11:27) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass short right to 85-H.Henry for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIA 17 – NE 9
  • Q4 08:51 TD MIA (8:51) (Shotgun) 31-R.Mostert left guard for 43 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIA 23 – NE 10
  • Q4 05:29 TD NE (5:29) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 38-R.Stevenson right guard for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIA 24 – NE 16

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 MIA 4th & 4 at the 4
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.65 EP
    p(convert) 41% p(FG) 98%

    (3:04) 7-J.Sanders 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-B.Ferguson, Holder-16-J.Bailey.

  • Q2 NE 4th & 10 at the 65
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (6:54) 17-B.Baringer punts 58 yards to MIA 7, Center-49-J.Cardona. 0-B.Berrios to MIA 16 for 9 yards (41-B.Schooler).

  • Q2 MIA 4th & 7 at the 81
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (5:51) 16-J.Bailey punts 37 yards to NE 44, Center-44-B.Ferguson, fair catch by 81-D.Douglas. PENALTY on NE-5-J.Peppers, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at NE 44.

  • Q2 NE 4th & 9 at the 31
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 77%

    (1:53) 37-C.Ryland 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-17-B.Baringer.

  • Q3 MIA 4th & 14 at the 79
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (13:02) 16-J.Bailey punts 55 yards to NE 24, Center-44-B.Ferguson. 81-D.Douglas ran ob at NE 36 for 12 yards (81-D.Smythe).

  • Q3 NE 4th & 5 at the 46
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43% p(FG) 40%

    (10:02) 17-B.Baringer punts 38 yards to MIA 8, Center-49-J.Cardona, fair catch by 0-B.Berrios.

  • Q3 MIA 4th & 11 at the 31
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 77%

    (3:39) 7-J.Sanders 49 yard field goal is BLOCKED (41-B.Schooler), Center-44-B.Ferguson, Holder-16-J.Bailey, RECOVERED by NE-23-K.Dugger at NE 47. 23-K.Dugger to MIA 49 for 4 yards (94-C.Wilkins).

  • Q3 NE 4th & 1 at the 24
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 66% p(FG) 88%

    (1:26) 10-M.Jones up the middle to MIA 22 for 2 yards (94-C.Wilkins).

  • Q4 MIA 4th & 7 at the 94
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43%

    (15:00) 16-J.Bailey punts 52 yards to NE 42, Center-44-B.Ferguson. 81-D.Douglas to NE 42 for no gain (51-D.Long).

  • Q4 NE 4th & 20 at the 96
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (9:03) 17-B.Baringer punts 57 yards to MIA 39, Center-49-J.Cardona. 0-B.Berrios pushed ob at NE 43 for 18 yards (45-C.Board).

  • Q4 MIA 4th & 3 at the 37 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 50% p(FG) 64%

    (2:19) 7-J.Sanders 55 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-44-B.Ferguson, Holder-16-J.Bailey.

  • Q4 NE 4th & 4 at the 33 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.81 EP
    p(convert) 45% p(FG) 73%

    (1:00) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass short left to 88-M.Gesicki to MIA 34 for -1 yards [2-B.Chubb]. Lateral to 69-C.Strange to MIA 29 for 5 yards (8-J.Holland; 43-A.Van Ginkel). The Replay Official reviewed the first down ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass short left to 88-M.Gesicki to MIA 34 for -1 yards [2-B.Chubb]. Lateral to 69-C.Strange to MIA 30 for 4 yards (8-J.Holland; 43-A.Van Ginkel).