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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Miami Dolphins 4th & 3 at the 37

Miami Dolphins 24 – New England Patriots 17

What Actually Happened

(2:19) 7-J.Sanders 55 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-44-B.Ferguson, Holder-16-J.Bailey.

The Three Options

GO +0.69 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 34, worth +2.80 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 37, worth -1.43 EP
KICK +0.65 EP
What Happened
  • 66% chance to make a 54-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.95 EP
  • 34% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 46, worth -1.86 EP
PUNT -0.37 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth -0.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model