4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Miami Dolphins 4th & 4 at the 4

Miami Dolphins 0 – New England Patriots 0

What Actually Happened

(3:04) 7-J.Sanders 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-B.Ferguson, Holder-16-J.Bailey.

The Three Options

GO +2.24 EP
Model's Pick
  • 41% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.61 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 4, worth -0.09 EP
KICK +1.59 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 21-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.64 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 21, worth -1.03 EP
PUNT -0.37 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth -0.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.65 EP