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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New England Patriots 4th & 1 at the 24

New England Patriots 3 – Miami Dolphins 17

What Actually Happened

(1:26) 10-M.Jones up the middle to MIA 22 for 2 yards (94-C.Wilkins).

The Three Options

GO +2.65 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 66% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 23, worth +4.43 EP
  • 34% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 24, worth -0.89 EP
KICK +1.53 EP
  • 88% chance to make a 41-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.96 EP
  • 12% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 34, worth -1.68 EP
PUNT -0.10 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 11, worth -0.10 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model