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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New England Patriots 4th & 4 at the 33

New England Patriots 17 – Miami Dolphins 24

What Actually Happened

(1:00) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass short left to 88-M.Gesicki to MIA 34 for -1 yards [2-B.Chubb]. Lateral to 69-C.Strange to MIA 29 for 5 yards (8-J.Holland; 43-A.Van Ginkel). The Replay Official reviewed the first down ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass short left to 88-M.Gesicki to MIA 34 for -1 yards [2-B.Chubb]. Lateral to 69-C.Strange to MIA 30 for 4 yards (8-J.Holland; 43-A.Van Ginkel).

The Three Options

GO +1.03 EP
What Happened
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 29, worth +2.77 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 33, worth -0.39 EP
KICK +1.90 EP
Model's Pick
  • 74% chance to make a 50-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.72 EP
  • 26% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 43, worth -0.50 EP
PUNT -0.04 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 11, worth -0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.87 EP