4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Miami Dolphins 4th & 11 at the 31

Miami Dolphins 17 – New England Patriots 3

What Actually Happened

(3:39) 7-J.Sanders 49 yard field goal is BLOCKED (41-B.Schooler), Center-44-B.Ferguson, Holder-16-J.Bailey, RECOVERED by NE-23-K.Dugger at NE 47. 23-K.Dugger to MIA 49 for 4 yards (94-C.Wilkins).

The Three Options

GO +0.22 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 20, worth +4.55 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 31, worth -1.52 EP
KICK +0.93 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 78% chance to make a 48-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.79 EP
  • 22% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 41, worth -2.17 EP
PUNT -0.22 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth -0.22 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model