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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New England Patriots 4th & 5 at the 46

New England Patriots 3 – Miami Dolphins 17

What Actually Happened

(10:02) 17-B.Baringer punts 38 yards to MIA 8, Center-49-J.Cardona, fair catch by 0-B.Berrios.

The Three Options

GO -0.09 EP
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +3.19 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 46, worth -2.55 EP
KICK -0.66 EP
  • 43% chance to make a 63-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.14 EP
  • 57% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 49, worth -2.74 EP
PUNT -0.09 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 13, worth -0.09 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model