LV @ BUF — 4th & Data

← Home

Away

Las Vegas Raiders

HC Josh McDaniels

Home

Buffalo Bills

HC Sean McDermott

Sunday 2023-09-17 · 13:00 New Era Field, Orchard Park US ☀️ Clear Spread 7.5 O/U 47.0

Win Probability

43.2%

BUF

56.8%

☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

Jimmy Garoppolo (LV): +0.247 EPA/dropback in prior starts
BUF defense: -0.061 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (10th in the league)
LV offense: +0.024 EPA/play over its last 8 games (9th in the league)
LV defense: +0.089 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (30th in the league)
BUF offense: +0.024 EPA/play over its last 8 games (10th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

LV 23

–

BUF 26

Projected margin: BUF by 3 Projected total: 49

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 2

LV

Chandler Jones DE Out Not injury related - personal matter

Jakobi Meyers WR Out Concussion

BUF

No players on the report.

Pulled fresh for 2023 week 2 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

LV 10

–

BUF 38

Prediction missed by 25 pts on margin, 1 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

Q1 12:22 TD LV (12:22) 10-J.Garoppolo pass short left to 17-D.Adams for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LV 6 – BUF 0
Q1 04:23 TD BUF (4:23) 28-L.Murray up the middle for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LV 7 – BUF 6
Q2 12:16 TD BUF (12:16) 76-D.Edwards reported in as eligible. 17-J.Allen pass short left to 88-D.Knox for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LV 7 – BUF 13
Q2 06:53 FG LV (6:53) 2-D.Carlson 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-A.Cole. LV 10 – BUF 14
Q2 00:24 TD BUF (:24) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short middle to 10-K.Shakir for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LV 10 – BUF 20
Q3 06:06 TD BUF (6:06) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short right to 13-G.Davis for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LV 10 – BUF 27
Q4 15:00 FG BUF (15:00) 2-T.Bass 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin. LV 10 – BUF 31
Q4 05:11 TD BUF (5:11) (Shotgun) 22-D.Harris up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. LV 10 – BUF 37

Fourth-Down Decisions

Q1 BUF 4th & 5 at the 70

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 48%

(10:29) 8-S.Martin punts 54 yards to LV 16, Center-69-R.Ferguson, out of bounds.
Q1 BUF 4th & 1 at the 6

Chose GO ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 66% p(FG) 98%

(5:09) 17-J.Allen up the middle to LV 4 for 2 yards (98-M.Crosby).
Q1 LV 4th & 5 at the 64

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 46%

(3:23) 6-A.Cole punts 48 yards to BUF 16, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, fair catch by 11-D.Harty.
Q2 LV 4th & 12 at the 29

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 28% p(FG) 80%

(6:53) 2-D.Carlson 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-A.Cole.
Q2 BUF 4th & 1 at the 1

Chose GO ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 66% p(FG) 99%

(3:01) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass incomplete short left to 88-D.Knox (39-N.Hobbs).
Q2 LV 4th & 3 at the 91

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.53 EP

p(convert) 58%

(1:55) 6-A.Cole punts 48 yards to BUF 43, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, fair catch by 11-D.Harty.
Q3 BUF 4th & 1 at the 12

Chose GO ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 67% p(FG) 96%

(8:42) 17-J.Allen left guard to LV 10 for 2 yards (98-M.Crosby).
Q3 BUF 4th & 2 at the 2

Chose GO ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 55% p(FG) 99%

(6:06) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short right to 13-G.Davis for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 BUF 4th & 8 at the 11

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 33% p(FG) 96%

(15:00) 2-T.Bass 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin.
Q4 LV 4th & 3 at the 58

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 54%

(12:53) 6-A.Cole punts 53 yards to BUF 5, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, downed by LV-20-I.Pola-Mao.