Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 5 at the 64

Las Vegas Raiders 7 – Buffalo Bills 7

(3:23) 6-A.Cole punts 48 yards to BUF 16, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, fair catch by 11-D.Harty.

The Three Options

GO -1.22 EP

46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +1.80 EP
54% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 64, worth -3.77 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model