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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q3
Buffalo Bills
4th & 1 at the 12
Buffalo Bills 21 – Las Vegas Raiders 10
What Actually Happened
(8:42) 17-J.Allen left guard to LV 10 for 2 yards (98-M.Crosby).
The Three Options
GO
+3.47 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
67% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 11, worth +5.20 EP
- 33% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 12, worth -0.07 EP
KICK
+2.03 EP
- 96% chance to make a 29-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.13 EP
- 4% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 22, worth -0.72 EP
PUNT
+0.06 EP
- Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 11, worth +0.06 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
