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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 3 at the 91

Las Vegas Raiders 10 – Buffalo Bills 14

What Actually Happened

(1:55) 6-A.Cole punts 48 yards to BUF 43, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, fair catch by 11-D.Harty.

The Three Options

GO -2.00 EP
Model's Pick
  • 58% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 88, worth +0.27 EP
  • 42% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 91, worth -5.11 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (108 yards).

PUNT -2.53 EP
What Happened
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 48, worth -2.53 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.53 EP