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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 3 at the 58

Las Vegas Raiders 10 – Buffalo Bills 31

What Actually Happened

(12:53) 6-A.Cole punts 53 yards to BUF 5, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, downed by LV-20-I.Pola-Mao.

The Three Options

GO +0.20 EP
Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.82 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 58, worth -2.82 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

PUNT -0.02 EP
What Happened
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 18, worth -0.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model