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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Buffalo Bills 4th & 2 at the 2

Buffalo Bills 21 – Las Vegas Raiders 10

What Actually Happened

(6:06) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short right to 13-G.Davis for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO +3.50 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.06 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 2, worth +0.39 EP
KICK +2.06 EP
  • 99% chance to make a 19-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.09 EP
  • 1% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 21, worth -0.63 EP
PUNT +0.01 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 11, worth +0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model