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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 12 at the 29

Las Vegas Raiders 7 – Buffalo Bills 14

What Actually Happened

(6:53) 2-D.Carlson 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-A.Cole.

The Three Options

GO +0.12 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 17, worth +4.68 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 29, worth -1.64 EP
KICK +0.78 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 80% chance to make a 46-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.53 EP
  • 20% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 39, worth -2.25 EP
PUNT -0.53 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 11, worth -0.53 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model