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MIA Away

Miami Dolphins

HC Mike McDaniel
@
LAC Home

Los Angeles Chargers

HC Brandon Staley
Sunday 2023-09-10 · 16:25 SoFi Stadium, Inglewood US 🏟 Dome Spread 3.0 O/U 50.5

Win Probability

MIA
38.3%
LAC
61.7%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • MIA offense: -0.097 EPA/play over its last 8 games (26th in the league)
  • Tua Tagovailoa (MIA): +0.234 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • LAC defense: -0.074 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (5th in the league)
  • LAC offense: +0.041 EPA/play over its last 8 games (11th in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised

Predicted Final Score

MIA 21
–
LAC 26
Projected margin: LAC by 5 Projected total: 47

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 1

MIA

Terron Armstead T Out Back
Elijah Campbell S Out Knee
Justin Bethel CB Questionable Knee
Julian Hill TE Questionable Ankle

LAC

Daiyan Henley LB Doubtful Hamstring
Chris Rumph LB Doubtful Hamstring

Pulled fresh for 2023 week 1 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

MIA 36
–
LAC 34

Prediction missed by 7 pts on margin, 23 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 04:42 TD LAC (4:42) 30-A.Ekeler right tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. MIA 0 – LAC 6
  • Q1 01:19 TD MIA (1:19) (No Huddle) 31-R.Mostert left guard for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIA 6 – LAC 7
  • Q2 11:46 FG MIA (11:46) 7-J.Sanders 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-B.Ferguson, Holder-16-J.Bailey. MIA 10 – LAC 7
  • Q2 09:11 TD LAC (9:11) 10-J.Herbert pass short middle to 89-D.Parham for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on MIA-4-K.Kohou, Defensive Offside, declined. MIA 10 – LAC 13
  • Q2 01:47 TD MIA (1:47) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short middle to 85-R.Cracraft for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. MIA 16 – LAC 14
  • Q2 00:14 FG LAC (:14) 11-C.Dicker 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott. MIA 17 – LAC 17
  • Q2 00:00 FG MIA (:00) 7-J.Sanders 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-B.Ferguson, Holder-16-J.Bailey. MIA 20 – LAC 17
  • Q3 09:20 TD LAC (9:20) 10-J.Herbert up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. MIA 20 – LAC 23
  • Q3 02:18 TD MIA (2:18) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass deep right to 10-T.Hill for 35 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIA 26 – LAC 24
  • Q4 14:03 TD LAC (14:03) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 25-J.Kelley up the middle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIA 27 – LAC 30
  • Q4 10:07 FG MIA (10:07) 7-J.Sanders 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-B.Ferguson, Holder-16-J.Bailey. MIA 30 – LAC 31
  • Q4 03:57 FG LAC (3:57) 11-C.Dicker 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott. MIA 30 – LAC 34
  • Q4 01:48 TD MIA (1:48) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short right to 10-T.Hill for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIA 36 – LAC 34

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q2 LAC 4th & 7 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (14:54) 16-J.Scott punts 49 yards to MIA 23, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 0-B.Berrios.

  • Q2 MIA 4th & 5 at the 5
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.33 EP
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 98%

    (11:46) 7-J.Sanders 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-B.Ferguson, Holder-16-J.Bailey.

  • Q2 MIA 4th & 2 at the 67
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.71 EP
    p(convert) 59%

    (8:16) 16-J.Bailey punts 38 yards to LAC 29, Center-44-B.Ferguson. 12-D.Davis to LAC 32 for 3 yards (20-J.Bethel).

  • Q2 LAC 4th & 4 at the 62
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.42 EP
    p(convert) 50%

    (6:44) 16-J.Scott punts 62 yards to end zone, Center-47-J.Harris, Touchback.

  • Q2 MIA 4th & 7 at the 42
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 56%

    (3:09) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short left to 81-D.Smythe pushed ob at LAC 32 for 10 yards (26-A.Samuel).

  • Q2 LAC 4th & 8 at the 32
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 78%

    (:14) 11-C.Dicker 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott.

  • Q3 LAC 4th & 13 at the 99
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (2:25) 16-J.Scott punts 34 yards to LAC 35, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 0-B.Berrios.

  • Q4 MIA 4th & 7 at the 27
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 85%

    (10:07) 7-J.Sanders 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-B.Ferguson, Holder-16-J.Bailey.

  • Q4 LAC 4th & 5 at the 7 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 98%

    (3:57) 11-C.Dicker 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott.

  • Q4 LAC 4th & 12 at the 67 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (1:01) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert sacked at LAC 24 for -9 yards (sack split by 15-J.Phillips and 20-J.Bethel).