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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 13 at the 99

Los Angeles Chargers 24 – Miami Dolphins 20

What Actually Happened

(2:25) 16-J.Scott punts 34 yards to LAC 35, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 0-B.Berrios.

The Three Options

GO -4.00 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 86, worth +0.47 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 99, worth -6.40 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (116 yards).

PUNT -2.90 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 53, worth -2.90 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model