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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 8 at the 32

Los Angeles Chargers 14 – Miami Dolphins 17

What Actually Happened

(:14) 11-C.Dicker 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott.

The Three Options

GO +0.78 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +2.76 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 32, worth -0.25 EP
KICK +2.16 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 78% chance to make a 49-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.93 EP
  • 22% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 42, worth -0.51 EP
PUNT -0.01 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 11, worth -0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model