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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Miami Dolphins 4th & 5 at the 5

Miami Dolphins 7 – Los Angeles Chargers 7

What Actually Happened

(11:46) 7-J.Sanders 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-B.Ferguson, Holder-16-J.Bailey.

The Three Options

GO +1.89 EP
Model's Pick
  • 36% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.58 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 5, worth -0.19 EP
KICK +1.56 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 22-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.61 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 21, worth -1.07 EP
PUNT -0.41 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.41 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.33 EP