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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Miami Dolphins 4th & 7 at the 27

Miami Dolphins 27 – Los Angeles Chargers 31

What Actually Happened

(10:07) 7-J.Sanders 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-B.Ferguson, Holder-16-J.Bailey.

The Three Options

GO +0.76 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 20, worth +4.48 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 27, worth -1.11 EP
KICK +1.37 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 85% chance to make a 44-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.92 EP
  • 15% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 37, worth -1.81 EP
PUNT -0.13 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.13 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model