4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 7 at the 72

Los Angeles Chargers 7 – Miami Dolphins 7

What Actually Happened

(14:54) 16-J.Scott punts 49 yards to MIA 23, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 0-B.Berrios.

The Three Options

GO -1.57 EP
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.94 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 72, worth -4.06 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -1.05 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 30, worth -1.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model