4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 4 at the 62

Los Angeles Chargers 14 – Miami Dolphins 10

What Actually Happened

(6:44) 16-J.Scott punts 62 yards to end zone, Center-47-J.Harris, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.52 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +2.38 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 62, worth -3.36 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

PUNT -0.94 EP
What Happened
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 21, worth -0.94 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.42 EP