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Green Bay Packers

HC Matt LaFleur
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Chicago Bears

HC Matt Eberflus
Sunday 2023-09-10 · 16:25 Soldier Field, Chicago US ☀️ Clear Spread 1.0 O/U 41.0

Win Probability

GB
62.4%
CHI
37.6%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • CHI defense: +0.156 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (32nd in the league)
  • GB offense: +0.075 EPA/play over its last 8 games (6th in the league)
  • CHI offense: -0.102 EPA/play over its last 8 games (28th in the league)
  • QB edge to GB: Justin Fields (CHI) -0.161 vs Jordan Love (GB) -0.093 EPA/dropback

Predicted Final Score

GB 24
–
CHI 19
Projected margin: GB by 5 Projected total: 43

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 1

GB

Christian Watson WR Out Hamstring
Romeo Doubs WR Questionable Hamstring

CHI

Robert Tonyan TE Questionable Back
Dylan Cole LB Questionable Hamstring

Pulled fresh for 2023 week 1 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

GB 38
–
CHI 20

Prediction missed by 13 pts on margin, 15 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 06:14 TD GB (6:14) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short middle to 87-R.Doubs for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB 6 – CHI 0
  • Q1 02:08 FG CHI (2:08) 8-C.Santos 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-T.Gill. GB 7 – CHI 3
  • Q2 09:04 FG CHI (9:04) 8-C.Santos 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-T.Gill. GB 7 – CHI 6
  • Q2 00:04 FG GB (:04) 17-A.Carlson 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan. GB 10 – CHI 6
  • Q3 10:23 TD GB (10:23) (Shotgun) 33-A.Jones right guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. GB 16 – CHI 6
  • Q3 06:34 TD GB (6:34) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short middle to 33-A.Jones for 35 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB-33-A.Jones was injured during the play. His return is Questionable. GB 23 – CHI 6
  • Q3 01:04 TD CHI (1:04) (Shotgun) 1-J.Fields pass deep right to 11-D.Mooney for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB 24 – CHI 12
  • Q4 13:34 TD GB (13:34) 10-J.Love pass short left to 87-R.Doubs for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB 30 – CHI 14
  • Q4 12:53 TD GB (12:53) (Shotgun) 1-J.Fields pass short middle intended for 11-D.Mooney INTERCEPTED by 7-Q.Walker [97-K.Clark] at CHI 37. 7-Q.Walker for 37 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on GB-29-R.Douglas, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced between downs. GB 37 – CHI 14
  • Q4 02:58 TD CHI (2:58) 23-R.Johnson left guard for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB 38 – CHI 20

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 CHI 4th & 1 at the 60
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 70%

    (11:39) 1-J.Fields up the middle to CHI 40 for no gain (91-P.Smith). Official measurement

  • Q1 CHI 4th & 7 at the 28
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 83%

    (2:08) 8-C.Santos 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-T.Gill.

  • Q1 GB 4th & 6 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47%

    (:42) 19-D.Whelan punts 42 yards to CHI 29, Center-42-M.Orzech. 15-T.Taylor to CHI 37 for 8 yards (38-I.Gaines).

  • Q2 CHI 4th & 11 at the 11
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 97%

    (9:04) 8-C.Santos 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-T.Gill.

  • Q2 GB 4th & 2 at the 68
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.12 EP
    p(convert) 65%

    (7:26) 19-D.Whelan punts 68 yards to end zone, Center-42-M.Orzech, Touchback.

  • Q2 CHI 4th & 10 at the 80
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (5:38) 16-T.Gill punts 53 yards to GB 27, Center-48-P.Scales. 11-J.Reed to GB 31 for 4 yards (39-J.Blackwell).

  • Q2 GB 4th & 9 at the 48
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 37%

    (2:19) 19-D.Whelan punts 42 yards to CHI 6, Center-42-M.Orzech, fair catch by 15-T.Taylor.

  • Q2 CHI 4th & 9 at the 80
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (1:23) 16-T.Gill punts 51 yards to GB 29, Center-48-P.Scales. 11-J.Reed to GB 44 for 15 yards (18-R.Tonyan).

  • Q3 CHI 4th & 12 at the 77
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (8:20) 16-T.Gill punts 54 yards to GB 23, Center-48-P.Scales. 11-J.Reed pushed ob at CHI 42 for 35 yards (43-D.Gates).

  • Q3 GB 4th & 3 at the 35
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 54% p(FG) 70%

    (6:34) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short middle to 33-A.Jones for 35 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB-33-A.Jones was injured during the play. His return is Questionable.

  • Q3 GB 4th & 8 at the 41
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.58 EP
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 55%

    (3:31) 19-D.Whelan punts 41 yards to end zone, Center-42-M.Orzech, Touchback. PENALTY on GB-38-I.Gaines, Face Mask, 15 yards, enforced at CHI 20.

  • Q4 CHI 4th & 14 at the 61
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (10:21) 16-T.Gill punts 54 yards to GB 7, Center-48-P.Scales, out of bounds.

  • Q4 GB 4th & 13 at the 79
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (6:28) 19-D.Whelan punts 56 yards to CHI 23, Center-42-M.Orzech. 15-T.Taylor to CHI 31 for 8 yards (34-J.Owens).

  • Q4 CHI 4th & 5 at the 18 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.37 EP
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 93%

    (4:05) (Shotgun) 1-J.Fields pass short right to 23-R.Johnson to GB 12 for 6 yards (25-K.Nixon).

  • Q4 GB 4th & 6 at the 30 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.38 EP
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 80%

    (1:10) 27-P.Taylor left end to CHI 25 for 5 yards (57-J.Sanborn). Penalty on GB-81-J.Deguara, Offensive Holding, declined.