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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Green Bay Packers 4th & 6 at the 30

Green Bay Packers 38 – Chicago Bears 20

What Actually Happened

(1:10) 27-P.Taylor left end to CHI 25 for 5 yards (57-J.Sanborn). Penalty on GB-81-J.Deguara, Offensive Holding, declined.

The Three Options

GO +0.48 EP
What Happened
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +1.91 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 30, worth -0.54 EP
KICK +1.78 EP
Model's Pick
  • 78% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.51 EP
  • 22% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 40, worth -0.73 EP
PUNT -0.15 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 11, worth -0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.30 EP