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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Green Bay Packers 4th & 3 at the 35

Green Bay Packers 17 – Chicago Bears 6

What Actually Happened

(6:34) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short middle to 33-A.Jones for 35 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB-33-A.Jones was injured during the play. His return is Questionable.

The Three Options

GO +1.12 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 32, worth +3.65 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 35, worth -1.87 EP
KICK +0.32 EP
  • 67% chance to make a 52-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.69 EP
  • 33% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 45, worth -2.42 EP
PUNT -0.35 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 11, worth -0.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model