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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Green Bay Packers 4th & 2 at the 68

Green Bay Packers 7 – Chicago Bears 6

What Actually Happened

(7:26) 19-D.Whelan punts 68 yards to end zone, Center-42-M.Orzech, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.52 EP
Model's Pick
  • 65% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 66, worth +1.37 EP
  • 35% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 68, worth -4.01 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

PUNT -1.64 EP
What Happened
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 26, worth -1.64 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.12 EP