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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Green Bay Packers 4th & 9 at the 48

Green Bay Packers 7 – Chicago Bears 6

What Actually Happened

(2:19) 19-D.Whelan punts 42 yards to CHI 6, Center-42-M.Orzech, fair catch by 15-T.Taylor.

The Three Options

GO -0.42 EP
Model's Pick
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +3.19 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 48, worth -2.59 EP
KICK -1.21 EP
  • 33% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.68 EP
  • 67% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 49, worth -2.62 EP
PUNT -0.68 EP
What Happened
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 14, worth -0.68 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model