Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Chicago Bears 4th & 9 at the 80

Chicago Bears 6 – Green Bay Packers 7

(1:23) 16-T.Gill punts 51 yards to GB 29, Center-48-P.Scales. 11-J.Reed to GB 44 for 15 yards (18-R.Tonyan).

The Three Options

GO -2.27 EP

37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 71, worth +1.17 EP
63% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 80, worth -4.28 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model