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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Chicago Bears 4th & 1 at the 60

Chicago Bears 0 – Green Bay Packers 0

What Actually Happened

(11:39) 1-J.Fields up the middle to CHI 40 for no gain (91-P.Smith). Official measurement

The Three Options

GO +0.82 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +2.52 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 60, worth -3.15 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

PUNT -0.32 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 19, worth -0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model