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ARI Away

Arizona Cardinals

HC Jonathan Gannon
@
WAS Home

Washington Commanders

HC Ron Rivera
Sunday 2023-09-10 · 13:00 FedExField, Landover US 🌧 Rain Spread 7.0 O/U 38.0

Win Probability

ARI
36.4%
WAS
63.6%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • ARI offense: -0.142 EPA/play over its last 8 games (29th in the league)
  • QB edge to ARI: Sam Howell (WAS) -0.339 vs Joshua Dobbs (ARI) -0.121 EPA/dropback
  • WAS defense: -0.104 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (1st in the league)
  • WAS offense: -0.051 EPA/play over its last 8 games (20th in the league)
  • Sam Howell (WAS) has only 1 prior start in the data — thin sample

Predicted Final Score

ARI 18
–
WAS 23
Projected margin: WAS by 5 Projected total: 41

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 1

ARI

Kelvin Beachum T Out Hand
Marquise Brown WR Questionable Hamstring
Zach Ertz TE Questionable Knee

WAS

James Smith-Williams DE Questionable Oblique
Chase Young DE Questionable Neck

Pulled fresh for 2023 week 1 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

ARI 16
–
WAS 20

Prediction missed by 1 pts on margin, 5 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 04:22 TD WAS (4:22) (Shotgun) 14-S.Howell pass short left to 8-B.Robinson for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 0 – WAS 6
  • Q1 00:56 FG ARI (:56) 5-M.Prater 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-16-N.Cooney. ARI 3 – WAS 7
  • Q2 13:31 FG ARI (13:31) 5-M.Prater 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-16-N.Cooney. ARI 6 – WAS 7
  • Q2 01:02 TD ARI (1:02) (Shotgun) 14-S.Howell sacked at WAS 12 for -14 yards (45-D.Gardeck). FUMBLES (45-D.Gardeck) [45-D.Gardeck], RECOVERED by ARI-97-C.Thomas at WAS 2. 97-C.Thomas for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 12 – WAS 7
  • Q2 00:03 FG WAS (:03) 6-J.Slye 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, Holder-5-T.Way. Penalty on ARI-3-B.Baker, Defensive Offside, declined. ARI 13 – WAS 10
  • Q3 10:12 FG ARI (10:12) 5-M.Prater 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-16-N.Cooney. ARI 16 – WAS 10
  • Q4 11:54 TD WAS (11:54) (Shotgun) 14-S.Howell scrambles left end for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 16 – WAS 16
  • Q4 02:26 FG WAS (2:26) 6-J.Slye 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, Holder-5-T.Way. ARI 16 – WAS 20

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 WAS 4th & 7 at the 49
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 34%

    (11:08) 5-T.Way punts 42 yards to ARI 7, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, downed by WAS-20-J.Martin. PENALTY on WAS-34-C.Holmes, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at ARI 7.

  • Q1 ARI 4th & 8 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (7:45) 16-N.Cooney punts 51 yards to WAS 19, Center-46-A.Brewer. 83-J.Crowder pushed ob at WAS 29 for 10 yards (52-V.Dimukeje). PENALTY on WAS-20-J.Martin, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at WAS 19.

  • Q1 ARI 4th & 9 at the 11
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 97%

    (:56) 5-M.Prater 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-16-N.Cooney.

  • Q2 ARI 4th & 9 at the 36
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 67%

    (13:31) 5-M.Prater 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-16-N.Cooney.

  • Q2 ARI 4th & 11 at the 85
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (6:24) 16-N.Cooney punts 34 yards to ARI 49, Center-46-A.Brewer, out of bounds.

  • Q2 WAS 4th & 18 at the 45
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24% p(FG) 44%

    (4:34) 5-T.Way punts 33 yards to ARI 12, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, fair catch by 83-G.Dortch.

  • Q2 ARI 4th & 12 at the 63
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (1:41) 16-N.Cooney punts 56 yards to WAS 7, Center-46-A.Brewer. 83-J.Crowder to WAS 12 for 5 yards (35-C.Matthew).

  • Q3 ARI 4th & 11 at the 19
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25% p(FG) 92%

    (10:12) 5-M.Prater 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-16-N.Cooney.

  • Q3 ARI 4th & 8 at the 61
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (3:03) 16-N.Cooney punts 41 yards to WAS 20, Center-46-A.Brewer. 83-J.Crowder to WAS 25 for 5 yards (0-Z.Pascal).

  • Q3 WAS 4th & 8 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (1:39) 5-T.Way punts 41 yards to ARI 32, Center-54-C.Cheeseman. 83-G.Dortch to ARI 40 for 8 yards (39-J.Reaves).

  • Q4 ARI 4th & 12 at the 77
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (9:55) 16-N.Cooney punts 53 yards to WAS 24, Center-46-A.Brewer, fair catch by 83-J.Crowder.

  • Q4 WAS 4th & 1 at the 67
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.29 EP
    p(convert) 71%

    (7:49) 5-T.Way punts 59 yards to ARI 8, Center-54-C.Cheeseman. 83-G.Dortch to ARI 21 for 13 yards (39-J.Reaves; 51-D.Mayo).

  • Q4 WAS 4th & 3 at the 15 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47% p(FG) 95%

    (2:26) 6-J.Slye 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, Holder-5-T.Way.

  • Q4 ARI 4th & 10 at the 63 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.52 EP
    p(convert) 31%

    (1:15) (Shotgun) 9-J.Dobbs pass incomplete short right to 14-Mi.Wilson (13-E.Forbes).

  • Q4 WAS 4th & 15 at the 41 late-game
    Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.46 EP
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 54%

    (:07) 5-T.Way punts 33 yards to ARI 8, Center-54-C.Cheeseman. 83-G.Dortch to ARI 3 for -5 yards (2-D.Brown, 34-C.Holmes).