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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Washington Commanders 4th & 7 at the 49

Washington Commanders 0 – Arizona Cardinals 0

What Actually Happened

(11:08) 5-T.Way punts 42 yards to ARI 7, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, downed by WAS-20-J.Martin. PENALTY on WAS-34-C.Holmes, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at ARI 7.

The Three Options

GO -0.26 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +3.41 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 49, worth -2.49 EP
KICK -0.82 EP
  • 34% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.41 EP
  • 66% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 49, worth -2.50 EP
PUNT +0.11 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 14, worth +0.11 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model