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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Washington Commanders 4th & 15 at the 41

Washington Commanders 20 – Arizona Cardinals 16

What Actually Happened

(:07) 5-T.Way punts 33 yards to ARI 8, Center-54-C.Cheeseman. 83-G.Dortch to ARI 3 for -5 yards (2-D.Brown, 34-C.Holmes).

The Three Options

GO +0.17 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 26, worth +1.15 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 41, worth -0.17 EP
KICK +1.49 EP
Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to make a 58-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.99 EP
  • 45% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 49, worth -0.31 EP
PUNT +0.03 EP
What Happened
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 12, worth +0.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.46 EP