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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 12 at the 77

Arizona Cardinals 16 – Washington Commanders 17

What Actually Happened

(9:55) 16-N.Cooney punts 53 yards to WAS 24, Center-46-A.Brewer, fair catch by 83-J.Crowder.

The Three Options

GO -2.58 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.60 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 77, worth -4.38 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

PUNT -1.67 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 34, worth -1.67 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model