Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 10 at the 63

Arizona Cardinals 16 – Washington Commanders 20

(1:15) (Shotgun) 9-J.Dobbs pass incomplete short right to 14-Mi.Wilson (13-E.Forbes).

The Three Options

GO -1.03 EP

What Happened

31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +1.46 EP
69% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 63, worth -2.16 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.52 EP