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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 9 at the 11

Arizona Cardinals 0 – Washington Commanders 7

What Actually Happened

(:56) 5-M.Prater 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-16-N.Cooney.

The Three Options

GO +1.27 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 2, worth +6.14 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 11, worth -0.53 EP
KICK +1.36 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 97% chance to make a 28-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.45 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 22, worth -1.30 EP
PUNT -0.53 EP
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.53 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model