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New York Giants

HC Brian Daboll
@
WAS Home

Washington Commanders

HC Ron Rivera
Sunday 2022-12-18 · 20:20 FedExField, Landover US ☀️ Clear Spread 4.5 O/U 40.5

Win Probability

NYG
40.9%
WAS
59.1%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • Taylor Heinicke (WAS): -0.158 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • WAS defense: -0.111 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (3rd in the league)
  • WAS on 7 more days rest than NYG
  • NYG defense: +0.092 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (29th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

NYG 19
–
WAS 23
Projected margin: WAS by 4 Projected total: 42

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 15

NYG

Joshua Ezeudu G Out Neck
Adoree' Jackson CB Out Knee
Shane Lemieux G Out Toe
Richie James WR Questionable Concussion
Jihad Ward LB Questionable Concussion
Daniel Bellinger TE Questionable Rib
Nick McCloud CB Questionable Illness
Leonard Williams DT Questionable Neck

WAS

Saahdiq Charles T Out Concussion
Efe Obada DE Questionable Finger
Cam Sims WR Questionable Back
Benjamin St-Juste CB Questionable Ankle
Chase Young DE Questionable Knee

Pulled fresh for 2022 week 15 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

NYG 20
–
WAS 12

Prediction missed by 12 pts on margin, 10 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 02:56 FG WAS (2:56) 6-J.Slye 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, Holder-5-T.Way. NYG 0 – WAS 3
  • Q2 13:18 TD NYG (13:18) (Shotgun) 4-T.Heinicke sacked at WAS 2 for -8 yards (5-K.Thibodeaux). FUMBLES (5-K.Thibodeaux) [5-K.Thibodeaux], RECOVERED by NYG-5-K.Thibodeaux at WAS 1. 5-K.Thibodeaux for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. NYG 6 – WAS 3
  • Q2 01:46 TD NYG (1:46) (Shotgun) Direct snap to 26-S.Barkley. 26-S.Barkley left tackle for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYG 13 – WAS 3
  • Q3 08:43 TD WAS (8:43) (Shotgun) 4-T.Heinicke pass deep middle to 1-J.Dotson for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYG 14 – WAS 9
  • Q3 03:15 FG NYG (3:15) 9-G.Gano 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-58-C.Kreiter, Holder-6-J.Gillan. NYG 17 – WAS 9
  • Q4 12:36 FG WAS (12:36) 6-J.Slye 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, Holder-5-T.Way. NYG 17 – WAS 12
  • Q4 02:00 FG NYG (2:00) 9-G.Gano 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-58-C.Kreiter, Holder-6-J.Gillan. NYG 20 – WAS 12

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 WAS 4th & 1 at the 37
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 69% p(FG) 58%

    (11:27) (Shotgun) 8-B.Robinson left tackle to NYG 32 for 5 yards (5-K.Thibodeaux).

  • Q1 WAS 4th & 12 at the 34
    Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.54 EP
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 66%

    (8:44) 5-T.Way punts 27 yards to NYG 7, Center-54-C.Cheeseman. 80-R.James to NYG 30 for 23 yards (47-K.Hudson; 39-J.Reaves).

  • Q1 NYG 4th & 7 at the 67
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (7:50) 6-J.Gillan punts 37 yards to WAS 30, Center-58-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 15-D.Milne.

  • Q1 WAS 4th & 8 at the 23
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 87%

    (2:56) 6-J.Slye 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, Holder-5-T.Way.

  • Q2 NYG 4th & 2 at the 56
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.99 EP
    p(convert) 59%

    (14:16) 6-J.Gillan punts 38 yards to WAS 18, Center-58-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 15-D.Milne.

  • Q2 WAS 4th & 6 at the 40
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.60 EP
    p(convert) 41% p(FG) 50%

    (10:28) 5-T.Way punts 37 yards to NYG 3, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, downed by WAS-47-K.Hudson.

  • Q2 NYG 4th & 9 at the 35
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 63%

    (2:23) (Shotgun) 8-D.Jones pass short middle to 80-R.James to WAS 24 for 11 yards (20-B.McCain; 29-K.Fuller).

  • Q2 WAS 4th & 5 at the 64
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47%

    (:25) 5-T.Way punts 48 yards to NYG 16, Center-54-C.Cheeseman. 80-R.James pushed ob at NYG 25 for 9 yards (95-C.Toohill).

  • Q3 NYG 4th & 3 at the 58
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.61 EP
    p(convert) 52%

    (12:57) 6-J.Gillan punts 49 yards to WAS 9, Center-58-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 15-D.Milne.

  • Q3 NYG 4th & 5 at the 32
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 71%

    (3:15) 9-G.Gano 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-58-C.Kreiter, Holder-6-J.Gillan.

  • Q3 WAS 4th & 1 at the 66
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.00 EP
    p(convert) 72%

    (1:39) 5-T.Way punts 65 yards to NYG 1, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, downed by WAS-35-P.Butler.

  • Q3 NYG 4th & 5 at the 94
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48%

    (:36) 6-J.Gillan punts 56 yards to WAS 38, Center-58-C.Kreiter. 15-D.Milne to WAS 42 for 4 yards (84-M.Johnson).

  • Q4 WAS 4th & 9 at the 33
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 68%

    (12:36) 6-J.Slye 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, Holder-5-T.Way.

  • Q4 NYG 4th & 8 at the 42
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.33 EP
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 44%

    (9:13) 6-J.Gillan punts 33 yards to WAS 9, Center-58-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 15-D.Milne.

  • Q4 NYG 4th & 7 at the 32 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 71%

    (2:00) 9-G.Gano 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-58-C.Kreiter, Holder-6-J.Gillan.

  • Q4 WAS 4th & 6 at the 6 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 98%

    (:56) (Shotgun) 4-T.Heinicke pass incomplete short left to 10-C.Samuel (30-D.Holmes) [97-D.Lawrence].