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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Washington Commanders 4th & 1 at the 37

Washington Commanders 0 – New York Giants 0

What Actually Happened

(11:27) (Shotgun) 8-B.Robinson left tackle to NYG 32 for 5 yards (5-K.Thibodeaux).

The Three Options

GO +2.23 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 36, worth +3.90 EP
  • 31% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 37, worth -1.57 EP
KICK +0.39 EP
  • 58% chance to make a 54-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.40 EP
  • 42% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 46, worth -2.36 EP
PUNT +0.30 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth +0.30 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model