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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Washington Commanders 4th & 6 at the 6

Washington Commanders 12 – New York Giants 20

What Actually Happened

(:56) (Shotgun) 4-T.Heinicke pass incomplete short left to 10-C.Samuel (30-D.Holmes) [97-D.Lawrence].

The Three Options

GO +2.32 EP
What Happened
  • 36% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.39 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 6, worth -0.01 EP
KICK +2.38 EP
Model's Pick
  • 98% chance to make a 23-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.44 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 21, worth -0.42 EP
PUNT -0.12 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth -0.12 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model