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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Washington Commanders 4th & 8 at the 23

Washington Commanders 0 – New York Giants 0

What Actually Happened

(2:56) 6-J.Slye 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, Holder-5-T.Way.

The Three Options

GO +1.58 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 15, worth +5.13 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 23, worth -0.24 EP
KICK +2.15 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 87% chance to make a 40-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.63 EP
  • 13% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 33, worth -0.97 EP
PUNT +0.57 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth +0.57 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model