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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Washington Commanders 4th & 1 at the 66

Washington Commanders 9 – New York Giants 17

What Actually Happened

(1:39) 5-T.Way punts 65 yards to NYG 1, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, downed by WAS-35-P.Butler.

The Three Options

GO +0.27 EP
Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.74 EP
  • 28% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 66, worth -3.60 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -0.73 EP
What Happened
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 24, worth -0.73 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.00 EP