4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Washington Commanders 4th & 9 at the 33

Washington Commanders 9 – New York Giants 17

What Actually Happened

(12:36) 6-J.Slye 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, Holder-5-T.Way.

The Three Options

GO +0.53 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +4.40 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 33, worth -1.41 EP
KICK +0.75 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to make a 50-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.07 EP
  • 32% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 43, worth -2.07 EP
PUNT -0.04 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth -0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model