4TH&DATA
EN ES
← Home
CIN Away

Cincinnati Bengals

HC Zac Taylor
@
TB Home

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

HC Todd Bowles
Sunday 2022-12-18 · 16:25 Raymond James Stadium, Tampa US 🌧 Rain Spread -3.5 O/U 47.0

Win Probability

CIN
63.4%
TB
36.6%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • CIN offense: +0.202 EPA/play over its last 8 games (1st in the league)
  • Joe Burrow (CIN): +0.225 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • TB offense: -0.034 EPA/play over its last 8 games (22nd in the league)

Predicted Final Score

CIN 26
–
TB 22
Projected margin: CIN by 4 Projected total: 48

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 15

CIN

Trey Hendrickson DE Out Wrist
Mike Hilton CB Out Knee
Hayden Hurst TE Out Calf
Jalen Davis CB Doubtful Thumb
Tyler Boyd WR Questionable Finger
Tee Higgins WR Questionable Hamstring
Trent Taylor WR Questionable Hamstring

TB

Genard Avery LB Out Abdomen
Jamel Dean CB Out Toe
Carl Nassib LB Out Pectoral
Vita Vea DT Out Calf
Mike Edwards S Questionable Hamstring
Sean Murphy-Bunting CB Questionable Quadricep
Joe Tryon LB Questionable Hip
Julio Jones WR Questionable Knee
Antoine Winfield S Questionable Ankle
Tristan Wirfs T Questionable Ankle

Pulled fresh for 2022 week 15 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

CIN 34
–
TB 23

Prediction missed by 7 pts on margin, 9 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 06:10 FG TB (6:10) 3-R.Succop 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-5-J.Camarda. CIN 0 – TB 3
  • Q2 14:17 TD TB (14:17) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short left to 17-R.Gage for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. CIN 0 – TB 9
  • Q2 01:43 TD TB (1:43) 12-T.Brady pass short right to 14-C.Godwin for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CIN 0 – TB 16
  • Q2 00:03 FG CIN (:03) 2-E.McPherson 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-C.Adomitis, Holder-4-D.Chrisman. CIN 3 – TB 17
  • Q3 12:08 FG CIN (12:08) 2-E.McPherson 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-C.Adomitis, Holder-4-D.Chrisman. CIN 6 – TB 17
  • Q3 05:47 TD CIN (5:47) 9-J.Burrow pass short right to 85-T.Higgins for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CIN 12 – TB 17
  • Q3 02:44 TD CIN (2:44) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short right to 83-T.Boyd for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CIN 18 – TB 17
  • Q4 12:49 TD CIN (12:49) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short left to 1-J.Chase for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CIN 26 – TB 17
  • Q4 02:27 TD CIN (2:27) 9-J.Burrow pass short right to 84-M.Wilcox for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CIN 33 – TB 17
  • Q4 00:52 TD TB (:52) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short right to 17-R.Gage for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CIN 34 – TB 23

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 TB 4th & 2 at the 3
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.31 EP
    p(convert) 53% p(FG) 98%

    (6:10) 3-R.Succop 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-5-J.Camarda.

  • Q1 CIN 4th & 10 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (4:07) 4-D.Chrisman punts 43 yards to TB 32, Center-48-C.Adomitis. 83-D.Thompkins ran ob at TB 41 for 9 yards (17-S.Morgan).

  • Q1 TB 4th & 1 at the 40
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 69% p(FG) 55%

    (2:03) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short right to 13-M.Evans to CIN 33 for 7 yards (20-E.Apple). Cincinnati challenged the pass completion ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (Timeout #1.)

  • Q2 TB 4th & 1 at the 1
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 64% p(FG) 99%

    (14:17) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short left to 17-R.Gage for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q2 CIN 4th & 16 at the 84
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (12:41) 4-D.Chrisman punts 53 yards to TB 31, Center-48-C.Adomitis. 83-D.Thompkins to TB 36 for 5 yards (59-A.Davis-Gaither, 17-S.Morgan).

  • Q2 TB 4th & 3 at the 32
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.45 EP
    p(convert) 50% p(FG) 74%

    (8:03) 3-R.Succop 50 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-5-J.Camarda.

  • Q2 CIN 4th & 3 at the 53
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.13 EP
    p(convert) 57% p(FG) 23%

    (6:36) 4-D.Chrisman punts 38 yards to TB 15, Center-48-C.Adomitis, fair catch by 83-D.Thompkins.

  • Q3 TB 4th & 1 at the 74
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 72%

    (13:34) (Punt formation) Direct snap to 25-G.Bernard. 25-G.Bernard FUMBLES (Aborted) at TB 20, and recovers at TB 18. 25-G.Bernard to TB 16 for -2 yards (51-M.Bailey).

  • Q3 CIN 4th & 3 at the 3
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.21 EP
    p(convert) 50% p(FG) 98%

    (12:08) 2-E.McPherson 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-C.Adomitis, Holder-4-D.Chrisman.

  • Q4 CIN 4th & 5 at the 48
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.74 EP
    p(convert) 48% p(FG) 34%

    (10:57) 4-D.Chrisman punts 46 yards to TB 2, Center-48-C.Adomitis, out of bounds.

  • Q4 TB 4th & 1 at the 89
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.66 EP
    p(convert) 74%

    (9:26) 5-J.Camarda punts 51 yards to CIN 38, Center-97-Z.Triner, fair catch by 11-T.Taylor.