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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 1 at the 1

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 3 – Cincinnati Bengals 0

What Actually Happened

(14:17) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short left to 17-R.Gage for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO +4.68 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 64% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.59 EP
  • 36% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 1, worth +1.26 EP
KICK +2.61 EP
  • 99% chance to make a 18-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.65 EP
  • 1% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 21, worth -0.11 EP
PUNT +0.63 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth +0.63 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model