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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 3 at the 53

Cincinnati Bengals 0 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 10

What Actually Happened

(6:36) 4-D.Chrisman punts 38 yards to TB 15, Center-48-C.Adomitis, fair catch by 83-D.Thompkins.

The Three Options

GO +0.07 EP
Model's Pick
  • 57% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.40 EP
  • 43% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 53, worth -3.02 EP
KICK -1.82 EP
  • 23% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.44 EP
  • 77% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.81 EP
PUNT -1.06 EP
What Happened
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 15, worth -1.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.13 EP