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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 1 at the 74

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 17 – Cincinnati Bengals 3

What Actually Happened

(13:34) (Punt formation) Direct snap to 25-G.Bernard. 25-G.Bernard FUMBLES (Aborted) at TB 20, and recovers at TB 18. 25-G.Bernard to TB 16 for -2 yards (51-M.Bailey).

The Three Options

GO -0.12 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 73, worth +1.44 EP
  • 28% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 74, worth -4.21 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

PUNT -1.43 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 32, worth -1.43 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model