4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 2 at the 3

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0 – Cincinnati Bengals 0

What Actually Happened

(6:10) 3-R.Succop 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-5-J.Camarda.

The Three Options

GO +3.74 EP
Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 1, worth +6.47 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 3, worth +0.65 EP
KICK +2.43 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 20-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.48 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 21, worth -0.28 EP
PUNT +0.36 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth +0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.31 EP