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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 3 at the 3

Cincinnati Bengals 3 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 17

What Actually Happened

(12:08) 2-E.McPherson 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-C.Adomitis, Holder-4-D.Chrisman.

The Three Options

GO +2.85 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.63 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 3, worth +0.03 EP
KICK +1.64 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 20-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.68 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.96 EP
PUNT -0.27 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.27 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.21 EP